---
id: data-sources/cadi-agricultural-decline-index
about:
  label: 'CADI, Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index'
  description: >-
    Global 10 km map of observed and projected change in attainable crop yields
    under climate change, from a team at IAE-CSIC and the Barcelona School of
    Economics, measured in people fed per grid cell.
  tags:
    - crop yields
    - food security
    - climate projections
    - agriculture
    - SSP scenarios
    - GAEZ
datasource:
  coverage: global
  resolution: grid cells of roughly 10 by 10 km
  cadence: '20-year periods; 1981–2000 and 2001–2020 observed, 2021–2100 projected'
  access: web map explorer; a data download is not stated on the site
  homepage: 'https://cadi.econai.org/'
open:
  source: unknown
  data: unknown
  api: unknown
  participation: unknown
  note: >-
    The site offers interactive maps only; no download, licence or API is
    stated.
domains:
  - food
  - climate
provenance:
  origin: agent
  sources:
    - title: CADI – Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index
      url: 'https://cadi.econai.org/'
    - title: CADI – Map Explorer
      url: 'https://cadi.econai.org/ssp370_absolute.html'
    - title: CADI – Team
      url: 'https://cadi.econai.org/team.html'
    - title: CADI – Results
      url: 'https://cadi.econai.org/results.html'
  created: '2026-10-19'
  reviewed: '2026-10-19'
  reviewed_by: >-
    Claude, from the sources listed; the map pages carry the data inline and
    were read for their text, not their numbers
  status: draft
---
The index was built by Laura Mayoral, Hannes Mueller, Björn Komander and János Szentistványi, from the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE-CSIC), the Barcelona School of Economics, IIIA-CSIC, RMIT University Melbourne and IDEA.[^3]

For each grid cell of about 10 km, the project uses the Global Agro-Ecological Zones model (GAEZ v5) to compute attainable yield: the most a location could produce under its biophysical conditions.[^1,2] The crop mix in each cell is held at the baseline, so only climate varies and no adaptation is assumed.[^1] Attainable production of the main crops is converted to calories and reported as the number of people a cell could feed each year at 2,000 calories a day.[^1]

Observed change compares the 1981–2000 climate with 2001–2020, using the AgERA5 weather dataset.[^1] Projections run from 2021 to 2100 against the 2001–2020 baseline, using two IPCC scenarios, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 (standard pathways of future emissions and development).[^1,2]

Results are shown in an interactive map explorer that has a slider over time periods and switches between observed and projected change, and between absolute and percentage values.[^2] The site, aimed at policymakers, development practitioners and researchers planning adaptation, offers no download, licence or API for the underlying grid.[^1,2]

The team reports that more than 640 million people live in farming areas where the number of people that can be fed has fallen by more than 10% over 30 years.[^1,4] By 2041–2060 under SSP3-7.0, about 49% of the world's population would live in cells with at least a 5% decline.[^1,4] A full paper is forthcoming.[^4]